A nationwide government survey conducted in the 2024 winter shows a significant shift among Iranians away from the ruling ideology and towards a secular system.
According to the national survey “Values and Attitudes of Iranians,” which is classified and has not been made public, an overwhelming majority of participants support the separation of religion and politics and express no desire to confront women who do not wear the hijab.
A very high majority also perceive society as less religious than before and predict that Iran will become even more secular in the future. Additionally, respondents reported engaging in religious practices less frequently than those in the previous nationwide survey eight years ago.
The national survey “Values and Attitudes of Iranians” was based on face-to-face interviews with 15,878 randomly selected individuals who answered a common questionnaire. These participants were 18 years or older and resided in 31 provinces across the country, including provincial capitals, other cities, and rural areas.
This recent survey is the fourth national survey on “Values and Attitudes of Iranians,” conducted by the Office of National Plans of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance in collaboration with the Social Observatory Center of the Ministry of Interior.
Three previous surveys of this type were conducted in 2000, 2003, and 2015.
Data collection for the new survey took place in November and early December 2023, with the final results delivered confidentially to select recipients in Iran on January 20, 2024.
In recent weeks, there has been significant media criticism regarding the secrecy of the “Values and Attitudes of Iranians” report. Given the stark contrast between the 2023 survey results and the government’s official stance, the lack of public release of the results is not surprising.
Additionally, considering the understandable reluctance of many citizens to trust government surveyors on sensitive topics, it is likely that the responses provided in the recent survey are more conservative than the true views of Iranian society.
In other words, in such surveys, many opponents of governmental or traditional views naturally exercise caution in expressing their true opinions.
Some of these individuals might even avoid participating in the interviews altogether to avoid unnecessary risk, especially since the face-to-face interviews were conducted in the aftermath of the violent suppression of nationwide “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement.
Beyond these considerations, a more significant concern is the level of impartiality maintained during the execution of government surveys. Specifically, whether the survey conductors made any efforts to increase the proportion of responses favorable to the government.
Increase in “Acceptance of Unveiling”
The final report of the “Values and Attitudes of Iranians” survey is organized into various chapters, and we have obtained Chapter Eight, which deals with “Religious Attitudes and Behaviors” of the people.
The significance of citizens’ responses on this topic increases when compared with the results of the previous national survey conducted in 2015. It is important to note that the comparisons made in this text are based on “valid” responses available in the questionnaires; unanswered questions or irrelevant answers have been excluded from the total responses.
One of the most significant findings of the 2023 survey is the section where individuals were asked how much they agree or disagree that “religion should be separate from politics.”
In response, 72.9% of respondents said they agree or strongly agree with the separation of religion from politics, while 22.5% disagreed or strongly disagreed with this separation.
In contrast, in 2015, only 30.7% of respondents said they agree or strongly agree with the separation of religion from politics, and 36.3% expressed disagreement or strong disagreement with this separation.
This means that while in 2015, opposition to the separation of religion from politics was greater than support for it, by 2023, supporters of the separation have tripled the number of opponents.
In 2015, 33% were “neither agree nor disagree” on the separation of religion from politics, which decreased to 4.6% in 2023. This shows that the proportion of people claiming neutrality on the issue has decreased to one-seventh of what it was between 2015 and 2023.
This change apparently indicates a greater polarization of society on this issue and a sharp decline in the number of people who, so to speak, stand in the middle.
In another section of the 2023 survey, respondents were asked to evaluate the statement: “Religious beliefs should not be considered in the employment selection process for public offices.”
In response, 61.9% of respondents said they agree or strongly agree that religious beliefs should not be a factor in employment selection for public offices, while 28.5% disagreed or strongly disagreed.
In 2015, a total of 42.6% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that religious beliefs should not be a factor in employment selection for public offices, while 29.4% disagreed or strongly disagreed.
In 2015, 28% of respondents were neither in favor nor against considering religious beliefs during the hiring process, but this proportion decreased to 9.5% in 2023, which is less than one-third of the previous figure.
In a separate part of the 2023 survey, individuals were asked how they react to women not wearing a hijab.
38% stated they have no problem with women not wearing a hijab, and 46% said that while they are against it, they do not interfere with others’ choices. Only 12.5% reported that they would give a warning if they saw someone without a hijab.
According to these statistics, the percentage of those who said in 2023 that they have no problem with “unveiling” is three and a half times higher than in 2015, when only 10.6% of respondents said they had no issue with “improper hijab.”
It is notable that in the 2015 survey, respondents were asked about their views on “improper hijab” (incomplete hijab), whereas in 2023, in the context after the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, individuals were asked about their views on “unveiling” (not wearing a hijab at all). Despite this, the percentage of people who explicitly stated they have no problem with “unveiling” has seen a remarkable increase.
In 2015, 67.7% also said they were against improper hijab but did not interfere with women’s choices. That year, 17.6% of respondents were willing to warn women about their hijab.
In another question related to the hijab, respondents in 2023 were asked for their opinion on the statement, “All women must wear the hijab”—essentially, their views on the government’s strict stance on women’s dress code.
Among the respondents, 45.2% were opposed or strongly opposed to the mandatory hijab for women, while 41% supported or strongly supported this requirement.
In 2015, only 22.2% were opposed or strongly opposed to the mandatory hijab, representing less than half of those who supported or strongly supported it, which accounted for 53.1%.
It’s noteworthy that the 2015 survey explicitly referred to the coercion of women with the statement, “All women must wear the hijab even if they do not believe in it.” In contrast, the 2023 survey phrased it as “All women must wear the hijab,” which suggests a belief in hijab rather than emphasizing compulsion. Despite this more moderate phrasing, 45.2% of the recent respondents still opposed the statement.
Additionally, in 2015, 24.8% of respondents were neither in favor nor against the mandatory hijab for women, whereas this proportion decreased to 13.8% in 2023. This change further indicates a decline in the number of people claiming neutrality on the issue of the hijab.
Increase in the Proportion of “Non-Religious” Individuals
Beyond questions related to the enforcement of religious regulations or religious interpretations in society, sections of the 2023 national survey broadly address the extent of “religiosity” among the people. Notably, some questions in these sections were not included in the 2015 survey.
In one such question, respondents were asked about their belief regarding “how the level of religiosity among people has changed compared to five years ago.” In response, 85% of participants stated, based on their personal observations, that the level of religiosity among Iranians has decreased compared to five years ago, whereas only 7% believed it has increased.
In a related question, respondents were asked whether they think “people will become more religious or less religious in the next five years.” In response, 81.8% of individuals predicted that Iranians would become “less religious” in the next five years, while 8.9% anticipated that they would become more religious.
In a separate question, survey participants were asked, “To what extent do you consider yourself a religious person?” In response, 42.6% of respondents considered themselves highly or very highly religious, while 24.3% said they were not religious at all or only slightly religious. Additionally, 23.2% described themselves as moderately religious.
However, other questions in the survey suggest that many respondents view being “religious” more as a heartfelt belief in God or the afterlife rather than adherence to traditional practices.
In one of the questions from the 2023 survey, which also appeared in the 2015 survey, respondents were asked how much they agree or disagree with the belief that “a person’s good and bad deeds are accounted for in the afterlife.”
In response, 77.4% of the 2023 respondents said they agree or strongly agree with this view. Although this percentage is significant, it indicates that the proportion of those who believe in the afterlife has decreased compared to the past: in 2015, the same percentage was 86.9%.
Another question common to both the 2015 and 2023 surveys directly addresses the evolving perspective on “religiosity” within the community. Respondents were asked their opinion on the statement: “Religiosity is about having a pure heart, even if one does not pray.”
In 2023, 61.8% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the idea that religiosity is about having a pure heart, even if one does not pray, while 31.3% disagreed or strongly disagreed.
In contrast, in 2015, 39.4% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, and 36.5% chose options indicating disagreement or strong disagreement. This indicates a significant increase in the number of people who prioritize heartfelt belief over religious practices over the past eight years.
During this period, alongside the rise in those who believe in the importance of a “pure heart” over prayer, the proportion of uncertain respondents—those who were neither in favor nor against this view—has dramatically decreased from 24.2% in 2015 to 6.8% in 2023.
The proportion of individuals who stated they pray always or most of the time has decreased from 78.5% in 2015 to 54.8% in 2023. Conversely, the share of those who reported rarely or never praying has increased from 8.4% in 2015 to 31.9% in 2023.
Overall, the proportion of individuals who explicitly told the surveyors that they “never” perform the religious practice in question has seen a notable increase between the two surveys.
For instance, those who stated they never pray rose from 3.1% in 2015 to 22.2% in 2023. Similarly, individuals who said they never participate in communal prayers increased from 17.3% in 2015 to 44.9% in 2023.
Additionally, the proportion of people who emphasized that they never fast increased from 5.1% in 2015 to 27.4% in 2023. Those who said they never read the Quran also grew from 9.1% in 2015 to 19.2% in 2023.
Finally, reviewing the responses based on educational levels also reveals meaningful insights: while 47% of individuals with university education believe that unveiling is acceptable, only 14.7% of illiterate individuals and 16.2% of those with primary education share this view.
Conversely, the readiness to confront women who do not wear a hijab is higher among illiterate respondents and those with primary education, at 28.6% and 24.3% respectively, compared to only 9.3% of respondents with university education.
This national survey in Iran reveals a remarkable shift towards secularism and a significant decline in traditional religiosity. These results underscore the growing sentiment among Iranians for a separation of faith from public life.
When considering any government survey in Iran, it is crucial to exercise extreme caution and seriously account for the reluctance of many citizens to express views that conflict with the government’s stance. Additionally, it is undeniable that the level of caution among respondents varies across different social and age groups, as well as across different regions of the country.
However, paying attention to the significant differences in responses from various social groups to the same questions can help avoid making sweeping generalizations about “public opinion.”
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